Postado em 19 dEurope/London novembro dEurope/London 2009
By Robert Shiller
NEW HAVEN – The International Monetary Fund’s October World Economic Outlook proclaimed that, “Strong public policies have fostered a rebound of industrial production, world trade, and retail sales.” The IMF, along with many national leaders, seem ready to give full credit to these policies for engineering what might be the end of the global economic recession.
National leaders and international organizations do deserve substantial credit for what has been done to bring about signs of recovery since the spring. The international coordination of world economic policies, as formalized in the recent G-20 statement, is unprecedented in history. Read more…
Postado em Conjuntura, Internacional | Sem Comentários »
Postado em 26 dEurope/London março dEurope/London 2009
by Robert Shilller
A critical aspect of animal spirits is trust, an emotional state that dismisses doubts about others. In talking about animal spirits, Keynes sought to convey the message that swings in confidence are not always logical. The business cycle is in good part driven by animal spirits. There are good times when people have substantial trust and associated feelings that contribute to an environment of confidence. They make decisions spontaneously. They believe instinctively that they will be successful, and they suspend their suspicions. As long as large groups of people remain trusting, peoples somewhat rash, impulsive decision-making is not discovered. Unfortunately, we have just passed through a period in which confidence was blind. It was not based on rational evidence.
The more complex the transaction the more trust is needed to sustain the transaction. So what must we do to revive our animal spirits and economic growth? The Treasury and the Federal Reserve not only need a fiscal target, they also need a credit target. The banks, whose managers are suffering from the same flagging animal spirits as the rest of the economy, will not expand their credit much just because they are more solvent.
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Robert Shiller is professor of economics at Yale University. His new book, with George Akerlof, “Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism”, is published by Princeton.
Postado em Conjuntura, Desenvolvimento, Destaques da Semana, Internacional, O que deu na Imprensa, Política Econômica | Sem Comentários »
