Blog do Desemprego Zero

O eleitorado de Hillary nas primárias está fortemente concentrado nos eleitores mais pobres, nas mulheres e nos latinos. O eleitorado de Obama está concentrado nos mais ricos (por incrível que pareça!), nos negros e nos jovens (e dizem que republicanos estão se infiltrando nas primárias democratas e votando por Obama – o sistema eleitoral norte-americano o permite – na tentativa de forçar uma polarização que favoreceria o candidato republicano, em caso de que o confronto final seja entre McCain e Obama).

* By MICHAEL LUO, March 5, 2008
After Big Wins, Clinton Sees Race Shifting Her Way

The New York Times

Fresh from her triumphs in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton contended Wednesday that momentum had now swung her way in the race for the Democratic nomination, though it appears she did little to cut into Senator Barack Obama’s lead among pledged delegates.

After flying from Ohio to Washington overnight, Mrs. Clinton was in high spirits during her appearances on a bevy of morning news shows. She was even able to laugh off? Though at the same time appear open to ? the possibility of sharing a ticket with Mr. Obama, provided she got top billing.

“That may, you know, be where this is headed,” said Mrs. Clinton on “The Early Show” on CBS with a broad grin and a laugh. “But, of course, we have to decide who’s on the top of the ticket. And I think the people of Ohio very clearly said that it should be me.”

But she devoted most of her comments to outlining the case she is expected to make in the coming weeks to voters, as well as to the all-important super-delegates who are likely to decide the contest, for why she should be the Democratic nominee.

The next contest is Saturday, a caucus in Wyoming. That is followed by a primary in Mississippi on Tuesday, with the next big state contest, a Pennsylvania primary, not until April 22.

Meanwhile, Mr. Obama found himself fending off questions about why he has been unable to land a knockout blow to Mrs. Clinton, just as he failed to do after winning Iowa and South Carolina.

“The bottom line is that we are in a very strong position,” said Mr. Obama on the “Today” show on NBC. “Senator Clinton barely dented the delegate count yesterday. We’re going on to Mississippi and Wyoming, where we feel confident that we can do well. And this process is going to ultimately be about who’s got the most delegates, and we think we’ll be in that position”"

He also told reporters Wednesday before leaving Texas, “It is very premature to start talking about a joint ticket”"

The Obama campaign fell back Wednesday on the mathematical reality, which makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Mrs. Clinton to catch Mr. Obama in the pledged delegate count.

Mrs. Clinton narrowed the gap with Mr. Obama by 15 delegates after her victories in Texas, Rhode Island and Ohio? not counting the results from the Texas caucuses, which have not yet been finalized ? according to a New York Times count. Overall, according to a projection by The Times that includes a survey of super-delegates, Mr. Obama was left with 1,456.5 delegates compared to Mrs. Clinton’s 1,370.

A fund-raising e-mail message was churned out overnight to Obama supporters, declaring the results “make one thing clear”"

“When the dust settles from today’s contests, we will maintain our substantial lead in delegates,” the e-mail continued, signed at the end, “Thank you, Barack”"

Notably, the e-mail message did not mention Mrs. Clinton and instead singled out Senator John McCain, now the Republican nominee, saying he had “already dismissed our call for change as eloquent but empty”"

An anti-war group, Campaign to Defend America, announced Wednesday it has begun a $1 million advertising offensive against Mr. McCain, ahead of the general election. The ads, starting in Ohio and Pennsylvania, paint Mr. McCain as offering a third Bush term and use the tag line, “McSame as Bush”"

Mr. Obama has been focusing on drawing contrasts with Mr. McCain in recent days, as the front runner in the Democratic contest. Mrs. Clinton has trained her fire on both Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain.

In her case to Democratic super-delegates, Mrs. Clinton is seeking to use the now-certain match-up against Mr. McCain to her advantage, playing up her national security credentials, although national polls generally show Mr. Obama faring better against him than she would.

“The race changed once it became clear that John McCain would be the Republican nominee,” Mrs. Clinton said on “The Early Show”" “And I think Democrats took a hard look at John McCain, with his emphasis on national security, and then took a hard look at the two of us and concluded that I’m the best possible candidate to be commander in chief”"

Mark Penn and Harold Ickes, both senior advisers in the Clinton campaign, reiterated the argument in a strategy memo sent out Wednesday morning, also arguing that Mrs. Clinton is more expert on the economy than Mr. Obama is.

For his part, Mr. Obama countered on the “Today” show that “the American people are going to want a clear break from the Bush-Cheney foreign policies of the past.”

He added: “And I think whoever is offering that clean break is going to be in a much stronger position to debate John McCain.”

A central challenge for the Clinton campaign Wednesday was how to deal with questions about mathematical realities. Mr. Penn and Mr. Ickes, in their memo, sought to refute the argument made by Obama supporters that he leads in the popular vote and has won nearly twice as many states. They argue that Mrs. Clinton has done better in states that will be battlegrounds in the general election, including Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and Florida.

None of the Democratic candidates, however, campaigned in Michigan and Florida as part of an agreement with the Democratic National Committee, which was punishing the states for moving up their primaries.

Indeed, the most controversial part of the Clinton memo may be at the end, where Mr. Ickes and Mr. Penn again make the case for seating delegates from those states, which Mrs. Clinton won.