Diálogos Desenvolvimentistas: O Sistema Elétrico nacional

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Por Rennan Martins

Na esteira da entrevista de ontem com o diretor do Instituto Ilumina Roberto D’Araújo sobre o Sistema Elétrico e o apagão que atingiu o Brasil na última terça iniciou-se um debate entre os colaboradores. Adriano Benayon, ex diplomata e doutor em economia, Gustavo Santos, também doutor em economia e funcionário do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) e o próprio entrevistado fizeram suas intervenções, contribuindo assim para a reflexão sobre os caminhos do setor energético.

Confira:

Adriano Benayon – Quase sempre, leio as matérias produzidas pelo Roberto d’Araújo, muito esclarecedoras sobre o caos que é sistema elétrico brasileiro, o qual, passou a dar saltos qualitativos em matéria de deterioração ao ser modificado pelas privatizações que favoreceram as térmicas (leia-se Shell, BP, Enron et alii).

Isso, como sabemos, foi lançado e institucionalizado sob o governo de FHC, e tem sido continuado sob os governos do PT, especialmente o atual.

Valeria a pena que d’Araújo se estendesse sobre a última pergunta da breve entrevista, pois só fala da pluralidade que deve ser eliminada, e sobre os órgãos responsáveis pela bagunça. Apreciaria também que ele aprofundasse sobre cada uma das múltiplas causas do desastre no setor da eletricidade.

De fato, sabemos que há pluralidade também de falhas estruturais de suma gravidade no sistema elétrico, tais como investimentos insuficientes, custosos e por vezes mal planejados – por exemplo no subaproveitamento dos potenciais hídricos e falta de eclusas.

Tudo isso agravado pelas políticas ambiental , indigenista e quilombola, as quais atrasam, complicam e mutilam os projetos, sem falar na mania das concessões, Parcerias Público Privada e outros esquemas.

Essa prática propicia campo de lucros extraordinários e indevidos para concentradores das empreiteiras, sem falar nas empresas monopolizadoras de projetos, cobrados ao governo, e feitos sem licitação, o que ocorre também na área dos transportes.

Está evidente que tecnicamente as soluções não são difíceis, embora envolvam complexidade, passível de ser vencida pela competência de bons planejadores e executores.

A questão fundamental, porém, a meu ver, é que as soluções adequadas, para serem executadas, dependem de um sistema político e institucional diverso do que temos, pois este está não é só infiltrado, mas também controlado pelos beneficiários dos n defeitos estruturais determinantes do desastre na energia.

Roberto D’Araújo- O que se percebe na implantação da privatização e mercantilização do setor elétrico brasileiro é a fragmentação da gestão e da responsabilidade. Não sei se isso é uma estratégia de tipo “dividir para dominar”, mas, chama a atenção o fato de que a fragmentação é institucional e física. E isso não é uma mera opinião minha. São conhecidas as dissidências metodológicas entre planejamento e operação do sistema brasileiro.

Quanto aos reservatórios, é um engano achar que seríamos capazes de recuperar uma situação de conforto anterior adicionando mais reservatórios. Primeiro porque não há mais lugares para tal e segundo porque a carga cresce no mínimo 3 a 4% ao ano e cada ano seria necessário um novo reservatório de grande porte a cada ano. Mas isso é o grande atraso brasileiro, pois querem tratar hidrelétricas como fábricas de kWh e elas não são.

Adriano Benayon – Apreciei o conteúdo de suas novas observações. Entretanto, ainda estou à espera de algo mais satisfatório em matéria de soluções para os defeitos estruturais do sistema elétrico.

Basicamente, permaneço com estas dúvidas:

Por que não seria viável elevar a geração de energia hidrelétrica?

Ou, se trata de dificuldade política? Pois os governos sob o atual “sistema democrático de direito”, gerido do jeito que é há 25 anos (desde a CF/88), não querem fazer o que é preciso para realizar a necessária elevação daquele potencial?

Se não é viável tecnicamente, que outras fontes energéticas deveriam ser objeto dos necessários investimentos para que o país não prossiga na situação de ter custos referentes a energia dos mais caros do mundo? O qual afeta, inclusive, a competitividade da indústria nacional, bem como o padrão de vida dos residentes.

Gustavo Santos – O problema não são os impostos e encargos, mas as altas taxas de lucro na distribuição e geração e os preços muito baratos do mercado livre em momentos normais, o que impede que esses preços baixos possam ser aproveitados pelo consumidor comum. O lucro excessivo em todas as fases que tem grandes empresas envolvidas e o custo elevado decorrente da simulação mercantil e do mal planejamento

Roberto D’Araújo – Elevar a geração hidroelétrica é viável, com, por exemplo com Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas e usinas a fio d’água. O que me parece difícil é construir usinas com reservatórios de dimensões que alterem a atual relação reserva-carga, que é o problema que está por trás do esvaziamento dos reservatórios. Ainda mais quando o governo tem uma filosofia fundamentalista de que todas as fontes competem entre si como se fossem meras fábricas de kWh.

As resistências podem estar sendo orquestradas por grupos de interesse, mas, se ao invés de um projeto puramente hidrelétrico as usinas fossem apresentadas como parte integrante de um projeto regional, onde se poderia tratar de assuntos como irrigação, transporte pluvial, reflorestamento, turismo, abastecimento d’água, urbanização e até reforma agrária, a situação seria outra. Sugiro relembrar a experiência da Tenessee Valley Authority, que fez tudo isso na década de 30. Afinal, não faltam ministérios nesse governo.

A tarifa brasileira não é cara por conta do preço do kWh. Os preços dos leilões giram no entorno de US$ 60/MWh que é barato em termos internacionais. O problema é o que está sobre esse preço. Principalmente Encargos e carga tributária. Portanto, a medida provisória de redução de tarifa escolheu o alvo errado. Praticamente inviabilizou a Eletrobrás para conseguir uma redução pífia.

Os custos das térmicas não são o normal. As que foram contratadas no governo Dilma nem têm características técnicas para funcionarem na base. Esse é o sintoma de que não há equilíbrio estrutural. O secretário executivo do Ministério (Zimmerman, ex presidente da Eletrosul no governo FHC, favorável à privatização) mente para a população.

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