China, Índia, Coreia do Sul e Bangladesh manipulam seus custos para ganhar mercado dos produtos brasileiros
A perda de dinamismo das exportações da indústria brasileira e a substituição da produção nacional por importações são o fruto de um cuidadoso descaso ideológico que comandou a política cambial durante duas décadas, a partir da segunda metade dos anos 80 do século passado. Foi um período em que a nossa economia se deixou conduzir conforme as “lições” do pensamento globalizante, segundo as quais os objetivos das políticas de crescimento deviam concentrar-se na busca da estabilidade macroeconômica e em garantir a credibilidade dos mercados financeiros. Os governos deveriam esquecer aquela “breguice” de planejamento da expansão da infraestrutura e de incentivos ao desenvolvimento industrial, principalmente. As tais ideias “modernizantes” foram praticadas sistematicamente, mesmo diante das evidências de que se estava destruindo o que havia de mais sofisticado em nossa manufatura, enquanto o abandono da infraestrutura produziu os enormes gargalos logísticos que respondem pelo substancial aumento do “custo Brasil”.
No período 1981-1984, quando enfrentávamos os momentos mais dramáticos da segunda fase da crise de preços do petróleo, a participação das exportações brasileiras com relação ao mundo era de 1,2%, igual àquela da Coreia e da China. Durante o primeiro mandato de FHC, uma política cambial alienante levou o País, em 1998, à beira do “default”, o que representou séria ameaça à sua reeleição. Esta foi salva graças a um “socorro” do FMI feito às pressas sob a intervenção política intempestiva do governo americano. Chegamos assim à dramática queda do valor das nossas exportações para apenas 0,9% do comércio mundial. Para quê? Para esconder “artificialmente” a taxa de inflação!
Nos primeiros anos do século XXI houve um princípio de recuperação em nossas exportações, graças à maior oferta dos produtos da nossa agropecuária e da mineração, e em razão do aumento dos preços no comércio mundial, devido à extraordinária expansão da economia chinesa, principalmente, e de alguns de seus parceiros asiáticos.
Em 2012, o Brasil exportou 242,6 bilhões de dólares, a Coreia 548,2 bilhões e a China 2,05 trilhões, respectivamente, 10, 20 e 80 vezes mais do que em 1984! O quadro nesta página dá uma ideia do que aconteceu.
A composição atual das nossas exportações sugere que elas serão menos elásticas no futuro em resposta ao aumento da renda mundial, do que aquela dos países que exportam produtos industrializados. Nossa indústria luta para reconquistar alguns espaços nos mercados externos, mas em circunstâncias extremamente difíceis, porque, além de a economia de antigos e bons clientes (Comunidade Europeia e associados principais) estar submersa numa terrível crise de emprego, o próprio mercado doméstico padece com a inundação de produtos estrangeiros a preços de dumping.
Hoje, de exportadores de calçados, vestuário, bicicletas, automóveis e inúmeros produtos da linha branca, transformamo-nos em importadores. E muitas de nossas fábricas não têm como enfrentar a concorrência de produtos chineses, indianos, coreanos, de Bangladesh, com seus preços manipulados por mil expedientes e subsídios embutidos. São duas as causas principais que explicam a continuidade dessa desleal competição com a nossa indústria: 1. Permitimos a desorganização do sistema de tarifas efetivas protegendo os setores de insumos básicos. 2. Permitimos que se produzisse uma forte valorização do câmbio, pelo aumento dos salários nominais muito acima da taxa de câmbio nominal.
Há pelo menos quatro anos, a Associação Brasileira da Indústria de Máquinas (Abimaq) defende duas providências fundamentais para o aumento dos investimentos e a recuperação do desenvolvimento industrial: 1. Construir as condições para uma flutuação organizada do câmbio nominal. 2. Comprometer-se com as políticas monetária, fiscal e trabalhista que conduzam à moderação salarial e reduzam seus eventuais efeitos inflacionários.

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