Projeção do BC para inflação no ano sobe de 4,8% para 5,7%

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Por Murilo Rodrigues Alves, Leandra Peres e Eduardo Campos no Valor

BRASÍLIA - O Banco Central (BC) calcula que a variação do Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) seria de 5,7% em 2013 e de 5,3% em 2014, na hipótese de a taxa básica de juros manter-se em 7,25% ao ano. O IPCA é o indicador oficial de inflação do país usado para balizar as metas de inflação perseguidas pela autoridade monetária.

As projeções foram divulgadas na manhã desta quinta-feira, no Relatório Trimestral de Inflação e referem-se ao cenário de referência, no qual a hipótese para a taxa de câmbio é um dólar também constante em R$ 1,95 , nível em que estava em 8 de março.

Pelas projeções do BC, a inflação fecharia 2014, último ano do mandato da presidente Dilma Rousseff, acima do centro da meta, estipulado em 4,5% pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).

No relatório anterior, divulgado em dezembro, a inflação projetada para o fim de 2013 era de 4,8%. Naquele documento, o cenário de referência também levou em consideração a taxa de juro básico constante em 7,25% ao ano, mas o relatório pressupunha a manutenção da taxa de câmbio em R$ 2,05, nível que estava em 7 de dezembro. Para o encerramento de 2014, a estimativa da inflação era de 4,9%.

Pelos dados divulgados hoje, a inflação fecharia este ano em 5,7%, bem acima do teto da meta (4,5%), mas inferior ao registrado no fim de 2012, quando terminou o ano em 5,84%. Pelas projeções, a inflação no primeiro trimestre fecharia no limite do teto da meta (6,5%) e subiria ainda mais no segundo trimestre, chegando a estourar o teto da meta (6,7%). A inflação só recuaria no terceiro trimestre, para 6%, fechando o ano em 5,7%.

Para 2014, a projeção começar no primeiro trimestre em 5,4%, cai para 5,2% no segundo e para 5,2% no terceiro. A expectativa para o fechamento do ano nesse cenário é de 5,3%.Pela primeira vez, a autoridade monetária divulgou a estimativa para inflação no primeiro trimestre de 2015: 5,4%.

De acordo com esse cenário, a probabilidade de que a inflação ultrapasse o teto da meta (6,5%) em 2013 é de 25% e, em 2014, de 24%.

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